Why Obama will trounce McCain in November [Politics Suck]

Almost a year ago, the smart money was on Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. Hell, if you even considered someone else, it was all just far-flung hopes– Hillary WAS going to be the Democratic nominee and no one could change that fact. Back in December 07, when Hillary was destroying ever other Democrat in the field and Obama was 20 percentage points down, there was one main pundit who got it dead on and that’s Guy Saperstein.

In his article from December 07, he points out why even though Hillary seemed like a sure thing, she was not going to be the last one standing on the Dem’s side– she is fundamentally a weak candidate, she carried too much baggage, would unite and energize the Republican base and at the time, even though she was outpolling her Democratic rivals, she consistently fell behind almost every single Republican challenger. Conversely, before a single vote was cast in Iowa, John Edwards and Barack Obama, who were polling behind Clinton, were outpolling almost every Republican in a head to head matchup.

So what does Saperstein predict for November?

“The November presidential election is not going to be close. Barack Obama is going to beat John McCain by 8 to 10 points in the national popular vote and win 300 to 350 electoral votes. Obama is going to wipe out McCain mano a mano.”

So how does he come to this conclusion? A couple main points, which I’m going to summarize, but you should really read his article yourself to get the finer points.

The Republican Party

First, this is just not a good year for Republicans. Even counting the idiots who believe that Obama is part of some sort of super secret Muslim-Marxist strategy of destroying the United States, most people just won’t vote Republican– Bush is extremely unpopular and the last couple years have been nothing but one Republican scandal after another. Gas prices are skyrocketing, the housing market is crumbling, the war in Iraq is extremely unpopular and the overall economy is in the shitter. You really couldn’t get much worse without falling into a full blown economic depression. Americans just won’t vote for a Republican any time soon.

Democrats as a whole have out-raised Republicans so far by enormous margins, have had turnouts that dwarf even the most optimistic hopes of Republicans and are much more focused and prepared for the general. Yes, even with the very lengthy primary battle, Democrats come out on top.

The Candidates

Saperstein theorizes that while McCain got an overall clean bill of health from his doctors, that in all actuality, his mind is going and this will be increasingly clear as the general campaign moves into full swing. He thinks that McCain suffered PTSD and the stress from another presidential campaign, combined with his age has started to take its toll. Plenty of people still function fine well into their 70s, but McCain is a very old and stressed 71.

“The problem with McCain is that his brain is no longer working. There is something wrong. Many doctor friends of mine hypothesize Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, which is consistent with his 5½ years of great stress in prison and which can explain his violent temper, his memory lapses and his frequent mental disconnects. It also is possible that he is suffering mini-strokes, which cause momentary double vision, partial blackouts and confusion, and which could explain why he can say incredibly stupid things, sometimes the same dumb thing several times in one day, without appearing to understand what he just said. Whatever the specific cause, he is not healthy, and mentally he is struggling to hold it together.”

Saperstein feels that especially once the candidates start debating, that McCain’s developing mental weakness will start to become incredibly evident as Obama runs circles around him. To me, this sounds very plausible. Back in 2000, even though I voted for Gore in the general, I honestly can say I was impressed with McCain and would have been on the fence if he had won the Republican primary. He was independent-thinking, quick witted, intelligent and funny. Eight years later, I see a very very different McCain. Sure, he’s had some very lucid, funny moments on SNL, but other than that, he’s been slow, has seemed often confused and often seems to completely miss the boat– not the McCain that people remember and I tend to agree it will only get worse.