Indiana and NC Democratic primary wrap up & predictions [Politics Suck]

With the votes cast in the Indiana and NC Democratic primaries, it’s time for some reflections and predictions, which you can take how you want to. I’ve been very wrong in the past (on some of the states each one would carry), but I was dead on predicting when Edwards would drop out. Not exactly Nostrodamus, but here goes.

Right now it’s 1230 EST here in NC. I got out to vote and Obama has taken this state 56% to 44% with 99% of the precincts reporting– the predicted Obama blowout. Right now, Indiana is at 51% for Clinton, 49% for Obama and no one except CBS has called it for Clinton, and there’s a good reason– either Clinton wins by the tiniest of margins or Obama pulls ahead by the tiniest of margins. Either way, Indiana’s pretty much a tie.

So I’ve said some pretty nasty things about Clinton. I find her incredibly untrustworthy, pandering, an egotistical maniac only out to serve her own interests, etc etc. Right now, the internet is swarming with prediction, mostly of the kind that she will fight this out straight to the convention floor and take the entire Democratic party down with her if that’s what it takes to make her feel better. However, I keep thinking that’s not the case. For all the poor qualities exhibited by Mrs. Clinton over the past several months, one has to think that if she is acting purely in her own self interest, she is intelligent enough to realize that it would be gravely against her self-interest at this point to further jeopardize a Democratic president. The party leaders will not let her forget this tomorrow or months from now. Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi will not allow her to destroy the party.

In her defense, if Florida and Michigan had not had their delegates stripped and the candidates properly campaigned there to make it a real and fair election, I think Hillary probably would have won both these states and very possibly be in a very different position. However, that was not the case and all candidates agreed that they were okay with stripping MI and FL of their seats and they signed off on it. So she could have argued it then but she didn’t and the past is the past.

I am predicting that Hillary will drop out within the week. Yes, I said it and very possibly by next Monday you can all laugh at me, but I do believe she will. Hear me out.

Voters in both the Clinton camp and the Obama camp are incredibly passionate about their candidates. Right now, Hillary understands that this night was a loss for her. Even with a 51-49 victory in Indiana, with Obama grabbing the lion’s share of the NC delegates, she’s now even in a deeper hole than ever. She could probably grab WV, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, but those are small fries. Obama will probably dog her in Oregon and her goose will be cooked. Right now her only hope are the superdelegates.

Say she were to drag this out to June, or defy the party even further by trying to drag it out to August. By that point, blood on both sides would be so boiled that with only 2 months to go at that point before election day, there is no way either side could reconcile with the other to gather the necessary votes to defeat McCain. Again, the DNC will not allow this to happen.

By allowing herself to bow out gracefully now, she will have time to rally her supporters for Obama and hell, she may even get a cabinet post out of it. She knows the longer she waits, not only does she threaten the Democratic Party’s chance of winning back the White House, she threatens her own political future. She is very aware that if she is seen as being the cause of the Dems losing the election, her political career is over. Done.

Even as I write this, MSNBC is calling for her to throw in the towel. For fuck’s sake, Fox is calling for her to quit. Tim Russert on MSNBC has said that she has canceled all her TV appearances this week. It’s over. Sorry Hillary, you had a good run. Sorry Hillary supporters, I know you love her but it’s time to get behind the nominee.

I believe Hillary does have a heart and she does have a soul and she will quickly realize that for her own future and for the country, the bell has tolled.